Mordin Class Rating (MCR): Full Calculation Methodology

The system determines the race tier by parsing the race title text first, followed by official classes and handicap rating bands. It splits classes exactly the way Mordin did—by pattern status, official handicap rating bands, and specific race types.

• G1 / G2 / G3 / LISTED: Hardcoded from the official title text.
• C2_OPEN: Conditions stakes or top-tier Heritage Handicaps (0-111+).
• C2_HIGH / C2_MID: Class 2 races divided by rating caps (106 band boundary).
• C3_MIDHIGH / C34_MID: Class 3 races split into proper or soft tiers based on handicap parameters.
• C4_LOWMID / C5_LOW / C67_BOTTOM: Lower handicap divisions down to the bottom of the pyramid.
• Forced Sellers: Selling races are automatically demoted to the bottom tier (C67_BOTTOM), overriding the BHA programme book.

An official class tier is simply the floor. How hard the field fought to win moves the final rating up or down. The engine automatically analyzes the physical winning margin, the count of horses within two lengths of the winner, and string-matching keywords inside the winner’s in-running comment.

• Level 1 (Hacked up): Won by 5+ lengths, or 2+ lengths with easy language.
• Level 2 (Comfortable): Won by 3–5 lengths with normal progression.
• Level 3 (Standard): Won by 1–3 lengths. This serves as the system default.
• Level 4 (Tight): Won by less than a single length.
• Level 5 (A Scramble): Won by less than a length with 4+ horses stacked inside 2 lengths of the line.

Once the tier and competitiveness level are locked in, the system matches them against a 12 × 5 matrix lookup table to yield a single base race figure.The standard baseline values (Level 3) scale as follows:

• Group 1 = 88 | Group 2 = 87 | Group 3 = 86 | Listed = 85
• High Class 2 = 82 | Mid Class 2 = 81 | Proper Class 3 = 80
• Strong Class 4 = 76 | Ordinary Class 4 = 74 | Class 5 = 71 | Class 6/7 = 67
• Scramble Upgrades: If a Class is won by a short head in a Level 5 scramble, the base rating increases by 5 points from 74 to 79.

  Worked Example: A Class 4 handicap won by a length and a half is Level 3 ➔ race MCR 74. The exact same Class 4 won by a short head with four horses stacked inside two lengths scales up to Level 5 ➔ race MCR 79. Same official BHA class, but five points of mathematical difference because the finish proved the depth of the contest.

The baseline race figure serves as the winner’s starting point, while beaten horses are penalized using a distance-aware formula.

• • The Winner: Gets the base race MCR. If verified as an easy Level 1 performance, an efficiency bonus of +1 to +3 points is added based on the margin.
  • Beaten Horses: Knocked back from the winner’s mark using the following calculation: Lengths Behind Winner × (1760 ÷ Distance in Yards).

Because one point equals one length at exactly one mile (1760 yards), penalties scale dynamically. Getting beaten 2 lengths over a 5f sprint triggers a 3.2-point deduction, whereas a 2-length defeat over a mile is a flat 2.0-point deduction. Beaten distance penalties are strictly capped at 20 lengths.

• Cumulative Margins: All margins are calculated directly back to the winner, not the gap to the horse immediately in front. For example, if Horse A beats Horse B by a length, and Horse B beats Horse C by a length, Horse C is calculated as being exactly two lengths behind the winner.

To prevent skewed metrics, international lines face strict conversion parameters before migrating onto the UK class ladder:

• Ireland & France: Processed natively as classified.
• Germany & Italy: Group 1 lines drop to a UK Group 3 benchmark; lower black-type lines settle as high Class 2.
• USA: Only top Grade 1 lines are converted; Grade 2/3 down to claiming spaces remain completely unquantified.
• Rest of World (UAE/Japan): Database lines are stored but remain unquantified, triggering a visual Foreign Form Warning on the daily racecard module.

These data structures act as advanced filters and flags within our System Builder. They serve as informational guidelines, never hard deletions—meaning a horse can still appear on the daily racecard. During historical backtesting, visible racecard pills for these individual rules were dropped to keep the interface clean, as none of them independently shifted a system’s ROI past our strict 10-point outperformance threshold. However, the raw filters remain fully active for you to build, test, and refine your own angles:

• Won at This Class or Higher: Verifies if the runner has a previous victory at today’s assigned MCR tier or better..
• The Older Sprinter Exception: If today’s race is a Class 1 sprint at 6 furlongs or shorter and the runner is aged 4 or older, a historical Group 2 sprint victory is automatically elevated and treated as a Group 1 win. This applies Mordin’s proven angle that an elite, exposed sprinter is rarely “stepping up in class” when moving into top-tier company.
  
• Outclassed Handicappers: Flags horses running in a handicap tier higher than their highest lifetime MCR achievement. This automatically filters out lower-class tier jumpers who are completely out of their depth in deeper fields, regardless of their recent official rating rises.
  
• Northern Form Variance: Tracks horses moving from prominent Northern UK tracks (like Catterick, Redcar, or Newcastle) to top-tier Southern tracks. This isolates Mordin’s observation that standard class levels in the North often require a mathematical correction when stacked against raw Southern field depth.
• Dosage Stamina Thresholds: Cross-references the horse’s individual MCR with their Dosage Profile index to ensure they possess the organic genetic stamina required to maintain that class velocity over today’s specific distance.